Explain it to me like I’m 5: my TDEE can’t really be this low, right?

A little background: male, 36 years old, 84 kg, 176 cm. This spring I dropped from around 90 to 82 kg and then went back up to 84 during summer. I should also mention that my highest weight in life was 130 kg, so I’m no stranger to either training or weight loss.

Three weeks ago I started my new cut with the goal of getting down to 75 kg.

My activity level: 10–15k steps every day. Some days 20k. Some of those steps come from everyday life and others from walking on a treadmill at full incline. 4 × 60-minute strength training sessions per week. 1 hour of badminton every week. When I clean or do work around the house, I wear a 10 kg weighted vest because I figure it burns a few extra calories. My Fitbit (yes, I know it’s not reliable, but hear me out) says I usually burn around 3,300 calories per day on average.

I’m aiming to eat 2,000 calories per day, at least 160 g of protein, and I log basically everything as accurately as I can.

Now to my question. In these 3 weeks since starting my cut, absolutely nothing has happened on the scale. I’m exactly the same weight I was when I started. I even gained weight during the first couple of weeks!

I know what you’re going to say: “You’re eating more than you think” and “You’re not burning as many calories as your Fitbit says.” And I understand that too.

BUT even if we say I’m eating 300 calories more than I think (I REALLY don’t think my margin of error is that big) and let’s say my Fitbit is overestimating my calorie burn by 600 calories, I should still be losing weight with my activity level, right? Or?

I just don’t understand how my TDEE could possibly be as low as 2,300–2,500 when it feels like all I do is train and move around. It honestly scares me to think about how low it would be if I wasn’t doing all this. Am I going to have to drop to 1,600 calories just to get the scale moving? That seems ridiculously low.

I see people online who are my size losing weight on something like 2,200 calories and I just don’t understand it.

So I’m asking for everything: reassurance, explanations, encouragement, and reality checks.

Thanks in advance.

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