How do I know if slow weight change is a plateau or normal fluctuation?

For reference, I’m 5’6 F.

I’ve already lost 50 pounds but gained 10 pounds back.

I want to lose 20 pounds next year. That’s roughly 1.5-2 pounds per month or 200-250 calories less per day. (I rounded out the numbers).

The problem is I know that due to water weight, lactic acid build up, and a higher volume of food, I won’t see changes on the scale except maybe every 2 months if I go this slow. I know that people say pictures and clothing size are another way of tracking progress but if I’m only losing 2 pounds a month, I don’t think I’ll see progress that way either.

My questions are:

1. How do I not go crazy when losing 2 pounds a month will feel like watching paint dry?
2. How do I know if I’ve hit a plateau or I’m just experiencing normal fluctuations with such slow weight loss? For example, let’s say I stick to a 250 calorie deficit and I lose 4 pounds but gain 2 pounds (from my period, from muscles, or water retention, etc). How do I know if I need to lower my calories again or just stay consistent? Especially as a woman, it’s just way harder to tell what’s what.

Thanks.

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