For others struggling with a plateau--stalled momentum--I'd like to share some observations and what I did. TL/DR: Go back to the fundamentals. Write down everything.
I've lost 9 lbs since a plateau I experienced late June through early August. My target is 1600 kcal a day, 40% protein, 35% carbs, 25% fat. My base TDEE is 1,699/day, with lifestyle + exercise it's around 2,400/day. With that plan I should be losing ~6 lbs a month. But I do go out to dinner with the family Friday nights, so I get another 1,600 calories a week from that, which brings my planned weight loss to ~4.5 lbs. a month.
Observations:
Recurring unplanned feeding: I was doing some afternoon grazing, doing multiple laps through the kitchen eating one or two crackers each time. Or some baby carrots, part of a "healthy" protein bar, or something. The issue is these laps were accumulated calories that were not part of the plan, and generally they were not the best choices of nutrition. Because I'd been eating more sugar, I was constantly fighting sugar cravings every afternoon. These lower-quality calories reduced the good calories I should have eaten. And to be honest I was probably not recording them all.
Macros out of whack: At the end of my plateau I was eating almost 50% fat, and half my carbs were from fruits. I'd started making my own protein bars, which are mis-named because they're really fat and fruit sugar bars (see craving note above).
Calorie creep: I'd started eating more vegetables. Broccoli, cabbage, kale, carrots, cauliflower, green beans. I wasn't recording these a year ago as the calories were negligible. But when I started eating many times more I failed to recognize I was eating 150-200 calories of vegetables a day.
Cardio drop: In late June I started incorporating more resistance training, which meant I cut my cardio in half 2-3 times a week. I burn 300+ per cardio session, so I was reducing my cardio calorie expenditure by at least 400 calories a week.
Slipping daily totals: I was regularly--uh all the time--going over my 1600. Between 1700 and 1800 and that was just what I wrote down.
What behaviors I changed:
No more afternoon grazing. After lunch no feeding until dinner time.
Rebalance and adhere to macro goals. No more fat- and sugar-laden protein bars.
Record all calories: Even vegetables, vitamins and supplmenents (fish oil, fiber, anyone?). Weigh everything and write it down before it goes in my mouth.
Strive for quality carbs. Carbs are very important, and it's important to get enough. They should all be quality complex carbs not sugar or refined starches. Sugars and refined starches aren't satisfying and create more cravings.
Stick to the daily calories by planning meals for the day.
My plateau was due to accumulated changes in behavior, not from some mystical change in my body or the bending of laws of thermodynamics. The plateau can be broken. Once I was honest with myself, it was broken.
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