Tuesday, October 23, 2018

[math alert] A concept I'm working on, input appreciated

So, this may or may not exist, even if it does I'm going to work on it to keep skills sharp. The attached is a concept for a spreadsheet I'm working on.

Here's the concept. I want to apply manufacturing statistical process control (SPC) to the weight loss process for those who like data. I know there's a debate over weekly/daily weigh ins, this would be for the daily crowd, and it's designed with a smoothing factor.

You would enter starting weight, goal weight, TDEE, then select from 3 plans, gentle (-250cal/day), normal (-500), or aggressive (-1000). From that the spreadsheet will calculate your expected daily loss. It would then average out 3 days and compare that to your target, plotting where you are vs. where your plan should be. This would be the red line and right axis. This flattens out the trend line and from here you can see trends (with a link to control chart tendencies) and make adjustments.

This flattens out the process, but since we all want to see the downward tending line, I included actual weight (3 day average) as the blue line, left axis.

In the example shown, I sort of randomized someone at the start of the process. You can see that early on they aren't meeting the plan chosen (aggressive), but adjustments are made and the red line starts moving down. Furthermore, even though the plan isn't being met, the weight is tending down. The target for the red line is zero, i.e. following plan perfectly.

The SPC nature of the process not only protects from losing control and not losing, it protects from losing too much too quickly.

Any input would be appreciated, but know that I'm keenly aware of scope creep. There are things I can add, but I want to get a basic spreadsheet worked out first. Most interested in input for conceptual stuff, all ideas are welcome.

Thanks.

submitted by /u/eehotaka
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