M28 6’4” SW 198 CW 177 GW 170ish -- Confused and posting to seek recommendations – 6mo results massively different from 1yr results?!

TLDR:

I’m posting this (I think my first Reddit post ever?) because I’m pretty lost in trying to figure out where I’ve gone wrong – but it’s clear I’ve gone wrong somewhere. First 6mo, I went from 198 – 171 lbs. Then 1.5mo break on vacation, up to 178 lbs. Then last 2mo, calorie deficit no longer tracking to weight loss. Can’t figure out why.

First 6 months:

I have been following a pretty strict CICO, tracking protein, bodyweight fitness regimen, and using MyFitnessPal since June 1st, 2020. During the period June – December 2020, I tracked calories closely and between nutritional calorie deficit (500 cal/day deficit nutrition-only, 1700 cal/day vs. 2200 calorie TDEE and cheat day every Saturday) and exercise (not impacting my nutrition target, counting exercise “negative calories” as bonus and weight loss accelerator, and doing the r/bodyweightfitness Recommended Routine M/W/F 3 days per week, with cardio or HIIT on the alternate days) I lost 27 lbs, from 198 – 171. Total nutrition-only calorie deficit June-Dec: -23,721. Total net calorie deficit including exercise: -99,045.

I tracked everything extremely precisely (read: like an assiduous anal retentive lunatic), and my calorie deficit tracked precisely to my weight loss at 3500 calories / pound of weight, as well as my TDEE being pretty accurate – see below chart for June – December, Cumulative Calorie Deficit on the right axis and Orange line, Weight on the left axis (actual weight in blue and theoretical weight in grey based on my TDEE and net calorie deficit over time):

https://imgur.com/eVeYS5X

Okay so first 6 months is FANTASTIC: I do MyFitnessPal for CICO and do RR, I track CICO, I go from 198 -> 171 lbs, increase max pullups from 2 -> 15, max pushups in a day from ~60 -> 220, I get a 6-pack and everything is groovy.

Next 4 months to Present Day:

I take the month of January mostly off from my regimen to give myself a break, so I can push my body even harder starting in Feb. I gain a little weight, from 171 -> 178 lbs and lose some ab definition – but it’s fine, no biggie and now I know the golden rule that CALORIES ARE EVERYTHING, so I have the tools to get there again and more!

So in Feb I launch back into it, only this time doubling up on the exercise. Here’s the breakdown from Feb 17 to today:

• Nutrition: 1700 cal/day (500 cal/day deficit), cheat day Saturday, 150g protein. Cumulative nutrition-only calorie deficit assuming (reduced from 2300 -> 2200 due to weight loss) 2200 calorie TDEE: +11,719
• Exercise: 2-3 workouts per day, daily skiing including uphill skinning up the ski mountain, RR M/W/F, lots of cardio including Peloton. Cumulative exercise calories burned: -101,177

I’ve been in an amazing position to be able to be outside, active, and basically “exercising” all day every day for two months, and by my calculation my net calorie deficit should be at -87,533 – divided by 3500 calories per lb, equals 25 lbs loss. Now I’m not actually looking to be that skinny, I’m just working to crest the last hill to get to an optimal physique – why not get the 6-pack and see what your body is capable of, right?

BUT – here’s where it gets weird. Despite the math above, my weight has diverged from the net calorie deficit significantly. It no longer tracking at all, and I can’t figure out why. I’m using the exact same level of discipline and eating habits as before, and it’s not like I’m building massive muscle and losing weight so the scale shows a wash – muscle mass is about the same, and I’m not seeing improved ab definition. See the below chart on calories, same format as above but the full time period June 2020 – April 2021:

https://imgur.com/REM7xdG

My ideas on what’s going on:

• Skiing on MyFitnessPal overestimates calories burned by a factor of like 5x?
• For the level of exercise I’m doing (836 calories per day) I need more protein than 150g per day?
• My TDEE has plummeted due to prolonged calorie deficits?
• I’m just stupid and doomed?

So I’m coming to these three communities (r/bodyweightfitness, r/loseit, and r/fitness) to see if anyone has any idea what the F is going on! I’ve learned SO much from these subreddits, and it’s helped me to take control of my health journey in a way I never previously had – so dear crowd, let me know if anyone has any ideas! Thanks for reading :)

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