Thursday, August 10, 2023

How long does water weight affect the rate of weight loss?

F22, 5'6", SW160, CW147, GW13X

I am an experienced weight-loser (previously did 200->150 in 2020) but I am not good at being healthy about it.

When I follow the steps to calculate TDEE, I usually get ballpark 1700 to 2000. I have a boring desk job, I do 30mins of cardio 3x a week, and I get 15-20k steps a day. To give myself a decent margin of error on underreporting calories, I stick to 1200 calories a day and I am very good at it. Over the past 23 days of data, my calorie average has been 1246. Perfect, right?

Except I have been losing weight wayyyy too fast. In 23 days, I have lost 8.2 pounds. Much above 1% per week. Based on my calculations, this puts my TDEE at around 2400.

2400 sounds insane to me. That's the "heavy exercise" category on TDEE calculators for my height. It doesn't make sense, IMO.

I'm wondering if water weight is coming into play. I lost a few lbs "casually" before this 23 day logging stint (160->155) which I think could have been most of my water weight. My weight loss in this 23 day stint has been fairly consistent (I weigh every day).

I know I need to increase my calories, but going up to 1900 just seems nonsensical to me. Even though it's what the data implies. What confounding factors could be throwing off my calculations?

(I am a mathmatician, I have a spread sheet, I know at the bare minimum my arithmetic is correct)

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